War and Peace in the 21st century
Gain insight into modern conflicts, security challenges, and peacebuilding efforts in the 21st century.
Participants will explore issues of war and peace in the 21st century through in-depth studies of three international conflicts: the War in Ukraine, the War in the Middle East, and the conflict regarding Taiwan. The course pursues three interrelated goals. The first goal is to refine judgement in relation to war and peace, leading to a holistic and balanced perspective. The second goal is to strengthen immunity to disinformation. The third goal is to start preparing for possible dystopian scenarios – for example, the possibility that conflicts escalate and spread, engulfing previously peaceful regions; or that weapons of mass destruction are used; or that infringements will trigger Article 5 of NATO, which commits each member state to consider an attack against one member to be an attack against all members.
Globally, we face a classic pre-world-war situation with several overlapping conflicts exacerbated by rising geopolitical tensions. We witness alliances of authoritarian and dictatorial regimes opposing the West. In the coming years, these alliances may strengthen and expand beyond the current configuration, i.e. Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. Other regimes may associate, including states of the Global South. This geopolitical confrontation makes escalation in flashpoints such as Ukraine and the Middle East more likely. These wars have the potential to inflame entire regions, and ultimately, through domino effects, triggering world war. Similar dynamics can occur in other conflicts such as a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, or a North Korean aggression against South Korea and/or Japan.
The likelihood that all major conflicts will be geographically contained, mitigated or resolved is low. Inaction or mistakes can lead to dynamics that no one of right mind would want. In his book The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914, Christopher Clark explores the developments at the outset of World War I, the “chaos of promises, threats, plans and prognostications”. In the words of David Lloyd George, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1916 to 1922, “The nations slithered over the brink into the boiling cauldron of war without any trace of apprehension or dismay... The nations backed their machines over the precipice, not one of them wanted war, certainly not on this scale”… and the world became “like a lunatic asylum run by lunatics”.
To prevent similar developments in the 21st century, one of the key questions is how to achieve just peace in ongoing conflicts, followed by a wider geopolitical concord. Participants will analyse two strategic options for the West, which may be called “pacifism” and “resistance”. Since these principles are not mutually exclusive, the challenge of our era may be to find a wise integration.
In addition to exploring pathways to peace in concrete conflicts, students will envision what peaceful societies would look like, and how to transform the human condition toward non-violent cooperative coexistence. The vision is a next renaissance, a society that is „non-violent and non-exploitative — consisting of highly cultivated, motivated and integrated individuals, inspired by love for humanity and guided by wisdom.“ (UNESCO 1998).
Sources of wisdom could be, for instance, the leaflets distributed by Hans and Sophie Scholl in their resistance toward the Nazi regime. In the fourth leaflet they wrote: “But out of love for future generations, an example must be set after the end of the war so that no one should ever feel the slightest desire to try something similar again.”
In the 21st century, it seems that little has been learned. Once again, global peace is threatened by dictatorships. Once again, the masses are manipulated on a grand scale. Once again, they are mobilised for antihuman goals. Once again, millions are ready to follow their leaders in harming human beings that did no harm to them and in putting the world on fire. This situation reflects a failure to learn from history, and a collective disability to wake up from unconsciousness. In this course, we outline the steps that would be relevant for any educated person: to become more informed, more conscious, and more compassionate, asking what to do individually and jointly in this situation.
Key topics include:
- The big picture: types of wars ♦ current wars: who fights whom, where, when, and why ♦ war trends ♦ the law of war ♦ the Geneva Convention ♦ war crimes ♦ children at war ♦ the arms race ♦ nuclear proliferation ♦ the United Nations ♦ private military companies ♦ information warfare ♦ neutrality and objectivity ♦ key terms.
- International conflicts: Interstate wars such as Russia-Ukraine ♦ possible interstate wars such as China-Taiwan, Israel-Iran, India-Pakistan, etc. ♦ wars with international repercussions such as the war in Gaza and the Arab-Israel conflict.
- Domestic conflicts: types - civil war, insurgency and counterinsurgency, terrorism, gang wars and various forms of communal violence ♦ Nigeria ♦ Ethiopia ♦ Yemen ♦ Haiti ♦ Mexico ♦ Sudan, etc.
- The West and its enemies: key concepts: The West, Western civilisation, European civilisation ♦ the clash of civilisations ♦ key Western orientations: democracy, freedom, human rights, liberal internationalism ♦ the Western institutional architecture and the credibility of rules ♦ Western unity ♦ historical burdens of the West: colonialism, exploitation, wars, inequality, arrogance, … ♦ the emerging alliance that challenges the West ♦ the many faces of fascism ♦ resilience.
- Causes of war: evolution of consciousness and evolution of paradigms ♦ evolutionary theory ♦ war as a problem of education ♦ reasons for war: climate change, water, territory, religion, humiliation, scarcity, profits …. ♦ root causes and root solutions ♦ war mongers.
- Peace: peacekeeping and peacebuilding ♦ varieties of pacifism ♦ appeasement ♦ varieties of peace ♦ top-down and bottom-up peace ♦ bargaining and the psychology of negotiation ♦ deterrence ♦ concessions: when they work, when not and when they are counterproductive ♦ why the road to peace is rarely short ♦ pathways to peace ♦ obstacles to peace ♦ expectation management ♦ humanitarian intervention ♦ warless societies ♦ women’s leadership in peace negotiations.
- Escalation and the Third World War: the internationalisation of wars ♦ interrelations of current and future wars (e.g. Ukraine vs. Taiwan) ♦ stages of escalation ♦ the war economy ♦ the Third World War ♦ probabilities of a conventional Third World War ♦ probability of a limited use of WMD ♦ responses to the use of WMD ♦ probabilities of global nuclear war ♦ psychology of key leaders ♦ strategies to de-escalate.
- The future of war: transhumanism, technofutures, technodictatorships, techno-futuristic war ♦ the future of warfare: robots, AI, space war …
- Latent armies: extremists, gullible masses, people prone to radicalisation ♦ the Trojan horse in the West ♦ current and future migration policy ♦ internal weaknesses of the West ♦ why authoritarian regimes have advantages over democracies ♦ tipping points in democratic and authoritarian systems.
- The impact of war: consequences for the political, economic, and cultural structures ♦ environmental consequences ♦ finance and war.
- Post-war reconstruction: justice, recognition of victims, accountability, pursuing war criminals ♦ Marshall Plan ♦ self-determination ♦ reconstruction ♦ reconciliation.
- Calibrating judgement: truths, half-truths and lies ♦ information wars - conspiracy theories, propaganda, fake news, hoaxes, … ♦ typology of half-truths ♦ goals of information wars and key target groups ♦ why so many people are susceptible to disinformation ♦ are cultural creatives immune to disinformation? ♦ typical lies and half-truths in concrete conflicts ♦ the limits of free speech ♦ the problem of creeping censorship ♦ is it possible to be neutral and objective?
- A wider agenda for peace: what can individuals, families, organisations, communities and societies do ♦ reducing the use of fossil fuels ♦ national vs. planetary interests ♦ breaking the pattern of violence ♦ upbringing for peace ♦ education for peace ♦ peace movements ♦ non-violent communication ♦ higher human potential ♦ integral schools of thought ♦ the next renaissance.
Hodnocení studentů AR 2024/25
Hodnocení studentů AR 2023/24